Is it a bird? Is it a plane? No it's Super Tuesday
Election fever has hit an all time high here. It is a complicated system to follow, and the majority of Americans that I have spoken to don’t fully understand it either. Basically each state’s party asks their follows to vote on who should be the next nominee for President. Those votes are then used by a small select group of delegates who go to the party’s conventions and cast their votes. Where the confusing part comes in is that some states are winner takes all and others use a strange form of proportional representation.
So in Nevada, Hilary Clinton won 51% of the vote and Barrack Obama 45%, but instead of Hilary winning all 25 delegates from that state, she won just 12 and Obama won 13, as he won more votes in the large cities of Nevada. To win the nomination you need just over 2,000 delegates.
Yesterday was Super Tuesday. (It was also a pretty good Tuesday in the UK because it was Pancake Day) and some 24 states decided who they wanted to be their nominee. This election seems to have really caught people’s imagination here because for the 1st time in 200+ years history the US finally has a credible woman and a credible black candidate. Whoever goes on to win the nomination for the Democrats will be historic in one way or another.
As for predictions, well they don’t work out to well for pundits as very few people get the predictions anywhere near right. The professional pundits here predicted after the 1st primary that Clinton would fall by the wayside and John McCain would also fail for a 3rd time. However, after last night’s results these are the 2 front runners. I too have in my own way fallen foul of making predictions. For my 6th Form Politics A- Level I did a dissertation entitled “Is the Labour Party Unelectable?” in which I predicted that John Smith would lead the party back to the centre, only for Smith to die (selfish git). I didn’t learn, and in 1997 I submitted a dissertation for my degree called “Reform of the Labour Party and its consequences” which concluded that Labour would win a small majority and would have to rely on the Lib Dems to help pass any huge reforms, only for Blair to lead the party to a massive landslide victory (selfish git). So I now shy away from making predictions. But I will say this, whoever wins the election will become President. Or maybe not if 2000 was anything to go by.
So in Nevada, Hilary Clinton won 51% of the vote and Barrack Obama 45%, but instead of Hilary winning all 25 delegates from that state, she won just 12 and Obama won 13, as he won more votes in the large cities of Nevada. To win the nomination you need just over 2,000 delegates.
Yesterday was Super Tuesday. (It was also a pretty good Tuesday in the UK because it was Pancake Day) and some 24 states decided who they wanted to be their nominee. This election seems to have really caught people’s imagination here because for the 1st time in 200+ years history the US finally has a credible woman and a credible black candidate. Whoever goes on to win the nomination for the Democrats will be historic in one way or another.
As for predictions, well they don’t work out to well for pundits as very few people get the predictions anywhere near right. The professional pundits here predicted after the 1st primary that Clinton would fall by the wayside and John McCain would also fail for a 3rd time. However, after last night’s results these are the 2 front runners. I too have in my own way fallen foul of making predictions. For my 6th Form Politics A- Level I did a dissertation entitled “Is the Labour Party Unelectable?” in which I predicted that John Smith would lead the party back to the centre, only for Smith to die (selfish git). I didn’t learn, and in 1997 I submitted a dissertation for my degree called “Reform of the Labour Party and its consequences” which concluded that Labour would win a small majority and would have to rely on the Lib Dems to help pass any huge reforms, only for Blair to lead the party to a massive landslide victory (selfish git). So I now shy away from making predictions. But I will say this, whoever wins the election will become President. Or maybe not if 2000 was anything to go by.
posted by Nick at 1:24 PM
4 Comments:
The good thing about all the coverage the elections are getting over here is I now know what they were talking about in 'The West Wing.' Caucus and all!!!!
Can you imagine if they tried to do all this in 4 weeks like in the UK??? They might make a mistake and elect an illiteate Texas oil man who would think starting lots of wars was a good idea..... oh :-(
Pete.
Yes I meant to mis-spell 'illiterate'!!!!
I'll be quiet now.
You fool.
The process has actually been going on for over 18 months here, with potential candidates setting up advisory groups to advise on the possibility of setting up a committee to explore the possibility of running. That said the US system still is governed by who has the most money, and the media's perception of you. You need both - which is why Ross Perot was a joke despite his millions.
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